Market Commentary

Week In Review

18 November | Switzerland Industrial Production

Industrial production in Switzerland grew 3.5% year-on-year in Q3 2024, a slowdown from 7% in the previous quarter. The deceleration was mainly due to a weaker rise in manufacturing output (2% vs. 6.5% in Q2) and a decline in mining and quarrying production (-4.1% vs. +1.6%). However, electricity supply output grew significantly by 20.2%, up from 12.9% in Q2. On a quarterly, seasonally adjusted basis, industrial activity rose by just 0.3%, a sharp slowdown from the 3.7% increase in Q2.

18 November | Eurozone Trade

In September 2024, the Euro Area recorded a trade surplus of 12,544.3 million EUR. Historically, the Euro Area's balance of trade has averaged a surplus of 5,593.4 million EUR from 1999 to 2024. The highest surplus was 29,946.1 million EUR in July 2015, while the lowest deficit was -55,033.3 million EUR in August 2022.

19 November | Switzerland Trade

In October 2024, Switzerland's trade surplus hit a record CHF 6.0 billion, up from CHF 4.0 billion in September. Exports rose 10.2% to CHF 24.4 billion, driven by strong sales in jewelry (+28.8%), vehicles (+23.7%), chemicals and pharmaceuticals (+15.6%), and watches (+5.1%). Key markets included Slovenia, Brazil, South Africa, and Japan. 

Imports grew more slowly by 1.8% to CHF 18.4 billion, with increases in chemicals (+6.6%), jewelry (+5.7%), and paper products (+1.9%). Significant import growth came from Slovenia, Hong Kong, Egypt, and the Netherlands.

For January-October 2024, the trade surplus expanded to CHF 39.5 billion, up from CHF 31.8 billion in the same period of 2023.

19 November | Eurozone Inflation

In November 2024, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone rose to 2.3%, up from 2% in October, in line with market expectations. This increase was largely due to base effects, as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer part of the comparison. Energy prices decreased by 1.9%, a smaller drop than the 4.6% decline in October. Non-energy industrial goods saw a 0.7% increase, up from 0.5% in October. 

Meanwhile, inflation slowed for services (3.9% vs 4%) and for food, alcohol, and tobacco (2.8% vs 2.9%). Core inflation, which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, remained steady at 2.7%, contrary to expectations that it would rise to 2.8%. On a month-to-month basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3%, reversing the 0.3% increase seen in October.

19 November | Japan Trade

Japan’s trade deficit plunged to JPY 461.25 billion in October 2024 from JPY 702.86 in the same month a year earlier, as exports rose much faster than imports. However, the latest result missed market estimates of a shortfall of JPY 360.4 billion. Sales increased by 3.1% to a three-month high of JPY 9,426.67 billion, reversing a 1.7% decline in September and surpassing forecasts of a 2.2% growth. Meanwhile, purchases rose by 0.4%, decelerating from a downwardly revised 1.8% increase in the previous month, yet outperforming expectations of a 0.3% decline.

20 November | UK Inflation

In October 2024, the UK's annual inflation rate rose to 2.3%, the highest in six months, up from 1.7% in September, exceeding both the Bank of England's target and market expectations of 2.2%. The main driver of the increase was housing and household services, which rose 5.5% (up from 3.8%), due to smaller declines in electricity (-6.3% vs -19.5%) and gas prices (-7.3% vs -22.8%) following a rise in the energy price cap. 

Other notable increases included prices for restaurants and hotels (4.3% vs 4.1%) and a rebound in housing and utilities (2.9% vs -1.7%). Services inflation edged up to 5% (from 4.9%), in line with central bank forecasts. Meanwhile, food inflation remained steady at 1.9%, and a slowdown in recreation and culture inflation (3% vs 3.8%) helped offset the rise.

20 November | Indonesia Inflation

The Bank of Indonesia kept its interest rate at 6% in November 2024 to stabilize the Rupiah amid global uncertainties, particularly from the U.S. It also aims to keep inflation within the target range of 2.5±1% for 2024-2025 while supporting economic growth. The Rupiah depreciated by 0.84% month-on-month, mainly due to a stronger U.S. dollar and investor shift toward U.S. assets post-election. Indonesia's annual inflation eased to 1.71% in October, down from 1.84% in September, the lowest since October 2021. The overnight deposit and lending facility rates remained at 5.25% and 6.75%, respectively.

21 November | Japan Inflation

Japan's annual inflation rate fell to 2.3% in October 2024, down from 2.5% in September, the lowest since January. This was mainly due to smaller increases in energy prices, with electricity rising 4.0% (vs. 15.2%) and gas up 3.5% (vs. 7.7%). Inflation also slowed for furniture, household goods, and cultural items, while prices for communication and education continued to drop. However, food prices rose slightly (3.5%) and transport costs increased more (0.5%). Core inflation dropped to 2.3%, below expectations of 2.2%. Month-on-month, the CPI rose 0.4%, reversing the previous month’s 0.3% decline.

21 November | Singapore GDP

Singapore's economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q3 2024, surpassing the 4.1% estimate and the 4.7% forecast. This marked an acceleration from 2.9% in Q2 and 3% in Q1. As a result, the 2024 GDP growth forecast was upgraded to "around 3.5%" from "2-3%." Growth was driven by manufacturing, wholesale trade, and finance, supported by a global electronics recovery. However, consumer sectors like retail and food services continued to contract due to sustained local outbound travel, slow recovery in international tourism, and weak tourist spending.

21 November | Indonesia M2 Money Supply

In October 2024, Indonesia's Money Supply M2 rose to 9,078,600 IDR billion, up from 9,044,900 IDR billion in September. This marks the highest level on record, surpassing the previous average of 2,066,759 IDR billion since 1980, and far above the low of 5,156 IDR billion in February 1980.

22 November | Germany GDP

Germany's GDP contracted by 0.3% year-on-year in Q3 2024, matching the decline in the previous quarter and exceeding the initial estimate of a 0.2% drop. This marked the fifth consecutive quarter of economic contraction.

22 November | Mexico GDP

Mexico's GDP grew by 1.60% year-on-year in Q3 2024. The annual GDP growth rate in Mexico has averaged 2.07% from 1994 to 2024, peaking at 22.70% in Q2 2021 and hitting a low of -20.70% in Q2 2020.

Week Ahead

25 November | Singapore Inflation

26 November | Singapore Industrial Production

26 November | U.S. Housing Data

27 November | Mexico Trade

27 November | U.S. GDP & Core PCE

28 November | Germany Inflation

28 November | Japan Industrial & Unemployment 

29 November | Germany GDP

29 November | Switzerland GDP

29 November | India GDP 

29 November | Canada GDP 

29 November | China PMI 

Outlooks

With less than 50 days left in 2024, wallstreet is gearing up for outlook season while reflecting on key insights from the year. The U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience with GDP growth holding steady at 3% and unemployment at a historically low 4%. Inflation has gradually fallen supported by global central bank easing policies providing much-needed relief for consumers and businesses. While higher interest rates have stressed some sectors, particularly those reliant on borrowing they’ve also created unique opportunities. Commercial real estate for example, has seen significant price variations presenting rare buying chances for investors. 

Artificial intelligence continues to reshape industries with spending on AI infrastructure projected to reach $1 trillion by 2028. This surge in AI investment is expected to add an estimated $7 trillion to global GDP over the next 20 years driven by productivity gains across various sectors. On the fiscal front President Trump’s policy is forecasted to increase the U.S. budget deficit by $4 trillion, though markets remain optimistic about stronger economic growth and a higher Federal Reserve rate suggesting confidence in the economy’s ability to handle fiscal headwinds.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe and other regions persist as risks to global markets. However, history suggests that such conflicts tend to have limited long-term impacts on market performance. As a result, investors are increasingly looking to diversification as a strategy to mitigate the risks associated with geopolitical uncertainty. Looking ahead to 2025 continued strength and opportunities across multiple sectors are expected to drive growth. Technologies like AI along with sectors such as energy and healthcare, will likely continue to offer attractive investment opportunities. As the global economy adjusts to new challenges sectors like technology, infrastructure and commercial real estate remain poised for growth according to wallstreet. 

Conclusion

Despite challenges from rising interest rates, fiscal policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks 2024 has demonstrated the resilience of the U.S. economy. With continued innovation in AI and other emerging sectors markets are expected to maintain growth into 2025 especially for investors who stay diversified and focused on long-term trends.